28 posts tagged “liberal party”
After a horror start to the week for the Liberal Party of Oz (see earlier post) the later half did indeed improve with some valuable comment from some Liberals.
Unfortunately for the Party it came from elder members who no longer have much input but nevertheless it was nice to see something a bit more thoughtful for a change.
First cab off the rank was Malcolm Fraser (pictured at left) who made an insightful reply to Fran Kelly on RN Breakfast. When asked what he thought Kevin Rudd should do (principally about boat people) he said "Kevin Rudd should get out of the way and let his Ministers manage their portfolios."
A very good observation although I appreciate he is viewing it from a different angle. The problem with Oceanic Viking got blown way out of proportion and Kevin 07 did not need to be in center stage as it exploded. He should have left it for his Ministers to solve and only get involved if it really went pear shaped.
The problem arose from some misreading of a poll and Labor is not the only interest group to get it wrong. Even Michelle Grattan got carried away and started reading more into the data. For those who missed it a poll was undertaken just after the rescued Sri Lankans refused to leave the Oceanic Viking at an Indonesian port. Now some Voters were excited and the Press certainly got their knickers in a twist but the Public in general were just watching things unfold. A few different Labor folk started jumping in front of cameras too and that also caught the publics attention.
The results of the poll were Labor down 15 points but Kevin himself only 2 points. For some reason the pundits and even Kevin himself, decided the love affair with Kevin was over. I thought the data was clear. The Voters were happy enough with Kevin but unhappy with all the other members of the Party and trade unionists loudly asking for the asylum seekers to come straight through.
More detailed polling has since shown that the Voters are pretty evenly split over how to treat asylum seekers. Some want to push them away while others want an "Open Door" policy.
The upshot was Kevin hitting the airwaves a la John Howard and popping up all over the place. Personally, I think this is a bad tactic. Eventually you will say something that offends just about everyone or people just get sick of seeing you around. I simply wouldn't go there.
If Rudd hadn't jumped in he could still be relaxing back at the Lodge instead of having to keep going over the same ground.
The second Elder Liberal to make an intelligent comment was a real shock. None other than Sadam Hussien's bag man Alexander Downer. His observation was uncharacteristically accompanied by an admission of having made the same mistake himself. The comment was about carrying on negotions with a megaphone ie. through the Press. He equated it to their (The Libs) dealing with the Tampa the same way. When you use the Press to publicise your agreements you paint the Indonesians into a corner and you will struggle to get the desired result.
Normally Kevin 07 understands this as shown by the Hu Stern case, but somehow this one slipped through. Being the clever clogs that he is, I'd be surprised if he doesn't learn from this error of judgement and he probably recognises disunity was part of the problem after the more detailed polling.
Rudd has had a challenging week, not a disastrous one, and if he reflects on the lessons and fine tunes himself and his party, life for Turnbull is going to be a hard row for quite some time yet.
It's been a shocking week and it's only Wednesday.
Monday night got things off to an exciting start with the 4 Corners program giving the Climate Change skeptics a full run. After all Malcolm's efforts to try and hide these characters the ABC has given them the opportunity to increase the size of the hole in the hull and they went for it boots and all.
Then something snapped in Joe Hockey who is supposed to be a future leader of the Libs. For some strange reason he has decided to play the God card, presumably because he thinks it will better his chances in Leadership ballots. Logic fail. Kevin 07 beat Howard in spite of his religious beliefs not because of them.
Aussies are always supicious of "God Bothering" from pollies. Yes, you can declare your hand if the matter is raised by others but to start the topic yourself is a very dangerous tactic. When you have another political challenger in your Party representing Cardinal Pell pushing a different God then things can get ugly mighty fast.
To add insult to injury, young Joe has also come out with the extraordinary claim that he doesn't lie. Perhaps he has already forgotten his part in promoting Work Choices but the victims of it haven't. It shouldn't be too long now before the Interviewers start reading back on his unhappy time as the Minister and start quizzing his pronouncements. Perhaps he should have added the caveat "from now on" but even that would be a struggle. His announcement that "People smuggling is in decline" though not an outright lie is certainly a dishonest presentation of the facts.
All this on top of Howard sticking his head up to remind the Voters of children being imprisoned with their asylum seeking parents.
The week can only improve from here.
The current unhappiness with uninvited guests refusing to leave an Australian vessel in an Indonesian port has stirred up the old race hate fans like Wilson Tuckey and Barnaby Joyce with a view to scoring some cheap political points.
Notionally it is better news for the Opposition and has given them a breather from the damaging infighting but it’s not all beer and skittles for them just yet. The problem stems from firstly not having a policy to follow and secondly a lack of logical thinking on the part of their Leader.
In the first instance. chaps like Iron bar Tuckey have no set rules to follow (assuming he actually would) and he gets a bit excited. In Iron bar’s case it led to the bizarre demand that Aussie soldiers should throw the asylum seekers off the vessel.
Now either Tuckey doesn’t have much of a grip of geography or he is running a bit shy of how diplomacy works but sending troops into another country to throw their weight around is not likely to go down especially well with very many people and in all likelyhood is illegal in the International court. (Policy fail)
Secondly, if you do want to score political points as Turnbull
wishes to do, it’s a good idea to try making the statement out loud in
front of your advisers but in private. This way you can check your
statement for logic without it going on record. Clearly young Malcolm
didn’t think it through this time when he claimed the current boat load
of asylum seekers having originated from Indonesia “completely
destroyed Kevin Rudd’s argument about political pressure in Sri Lanka.” That's right up there with the struggling logic displayed by his Deputy Julie Bishop.
News reports from Sri Lanka make it perfectly clear there is a very unsympathetic Government dealing with the surviving Tamil Tigers and for that matter ordinary Sri Lankans who disagree with them. Conciliation is not on the agenda. One boat load can hardly be claimed to be representative of the whole problem.
This really points to Turnbull’s ongoing problem in front of the media. He seems to get over excited and forget to leave himself some wriggle room. Yes, he could make some mileage out of the current problem but he has to be a bit more thoughtful. Blowing his credibility at the opening of an attack gets the focus on him instead of the point he wants to make. It’s not the first time he has made a dill of himself and I think it stems from his attitude that he is always right. Some Press Conferences seem to show him thinking on his feet rather than being prepared.
Can he fix it? Well yes, but does he know he has a problem? I think
his attitude suggests he thinks he is without blame in the current
despair gripping the party room and unless he takes a “good hard look
at himself” he will probably leave the job feeling he was never given a
fair go.
He has been given fairly good support but when he drops the easy ball like this you can’t blame the Libs looking for a better player.
Looks like Barnaby Joyce has caused another brain fade in the Liberal ranks with the current Rio Tinto problem in China. Apparently the preferred response to spying charges against Stern Hu require a good ol’ sabre rattling to drive the commies into subservience. Looks like something from way back in the 60’s but luckily we now have a government with a more realistic view of the world.
Thankfully this doesn’t run right through the Liberal Party ranks so there is still hope that some common sense still exists within the party but it is worrying that a newbie like Andrew Robb is so far away from the real world. The new blood is supposed to be smarter. Really, if Peter Costello can work it out then Robb should be able to.
I’m surprised the Libs have even decided to play with fire here. The last corruption claim on an international level was the AWB in Iraq and that turned out to be well founded and either actively supported by Alexander Downer or else he has taken to initialling things in his sleep. Surely they don’t want to go there for another beating from the Voters.
The problem here for the Libs is their lack of focus. A collective case of ADHD if you will. Just as in the Utegate affair, the enthusiasm to play the man has overridden the requirement to look like a viable alternative government. Realistically, who is going to vote for a government that doesn’t have the wit to manage diplomatic affairs?
A couple of things are now surfacing to make it harder to run the Liberal line. Firstly the US has started to throw its weight around with no effective impact. Then there are more sensible folk like Cozzie who would rather appear smarter than toe the opportunist line. Not all the details have been revealed and considering bribery is not unknown and even mandatory in some foreign business deals, it’s a brave person who sticks his neck out when they don’t live within the company. Let’s face it. One man’s bribe is another man incentive payment. The key is placing your funds with the right person.
Personally, I can’t imagine why international relations should be played out via the shock jocks and I include RN Breakfast in this description. Just because the media want to know everything is no justification for them being in the picture. Back channels work precisely because they are not subject to hot head intervention.
Meanwhile the Liberal party should invest some serious thinking into how they want to market themselves to the Aussie Public. If they decide to stick with the status quo then Barnaby Joyce will look like he belongs in the mainstream instead as a maverick who shouts before he thinks.
I think it’s an easy choice.
I may just have to print this one up.
Just when I thought Tony Abbott had maxed out the amount of damage he could do to the Liberal Party, today I find him in the Sunday Age with his manifesto for returning the Party to power. Gazing at the world through his Pell coloured glasses, young Tony has decided our society is hankering to return to religious ways.
I kid you not.
Seems Abbott is not much of a student of history, but more a pie eyed optimist who suffers the same disease that many religious leaders suffer. The one where they think they know the mind of God and have a mission to fulfil it. It’s the same disease where leaders even within a particular Church think they know better than their fellow Bishops. And haven’t there been plenty of those?
Perhaps Tony fancies we are closer to the US than we actually are but the reality is Aussies do not fancy a Theocracy and basically like pollies to mind their own business. This isn’t just a reaction to Tony’s own poor behaviour either. It’s a time honoured tradition to disparage politicians as much as it is to regard Priests with a good deal of scepticism.
The term Wowser doesn’t get used much these days but the attitude is strong in the community. The modern term seems to be Fun Police but it lacks the subtlety of the religious undertone.
Among Tony’s new (well old really) ideas is a change to divorce rules. Apparently Lionel Murphy’s changes in ’75 bringing in the more civilised “no fault” divorce option is not for him. He prefers the blame game and I presume the private eye peering through bedroom curtains and waiting for a photo op.
Having channel hopped past those appalling US programs about cheating, I can’t wait to see Tony defend this change.
If you haven’t guessed it yet, young Tony has a book about to be published called Battlelines and if the rest of it follows the stuff he is pleased to talk about in the Sunday Age then it will be a must read for the Labor party.
The funniest thing about this whole episode is this is not a premeditated attack on the Liberal party from a disgruntled ex-Minister. He actually believes his own material. He still doesn’t believe they lost power because they lost touch with the Public. More that the Public lost touch with the Libs.
The whole article was nicely rounded off with a bitchy “I
think we lost to an unworthy opponent”. It beautifully sums up his arrogance
and rudeness and continues to make him look like a ratbag and Kevin 07 look
like a Statesman.
And all his own work too.
Despite the flashing red lights of the opinion polls, the Libs have not noticed they are not offering what the Public want to hear. A good question for them to ponder would be this.
Do the Voters want to see a start on addressing Climate Change, or would they rather be watching a slanging match across the dispatch box?
Not surprisingly, this question has not been asked in the Party room. With all the internal politics going on, the Voters wishes are running a very distant second. They seem to think the last election was an aberration rather than folk waking up to the fact that they didn't have a say in where the country was headed. It's a simply but logical concept. Aussies don't especially want to steer the country they just dont want the incumbent to take it in the wrong direction. Howard got it wrong so they got the boot. They haven't changed direction so why would the same Voters swing back?
It's an odd attitude that. Trusting that someone will vote for you because you belong to the Liberal party rather than what you stand for is asking a lot. Howard "embraced" the Workers and then he slapped them with Work Choices. Folk who hated to see children thrown in jail (and this includes plenty of traditional Liberal voters) got to see their cries ignored as asylum seekers and their kids were interred. Folk who wanted us to move towards a sustainable, environmentally responsible Economy just got nay sayers and a thin facade the Voters saw straight through. It doesn't leave much support to draw on. It wasn't enough to win the last election and it has softened since then.
So who will get promoted if a reshuffle occurs? If Tony Abbott comes to the crease then we are back to the "old school". Of course Kevin 07 would be delighted to see Tony back after Tony's expert help in making Kevin so popular but that 50's style of playing the man is clearly out of favour with the Public.
The funny familiar faces will show the voting public that the ghost of Howard still lurks within the party and unless they start to show some grasp of the current world and a rejection of policies past, they could be spending a long time electing "The best man who never led the country".
A splendid example exists of what can happen. The Democrats decided not to punish Meg Lees for not "Keeping the Bastards Honest" and their support base withered away to vanishing point. Now the Libs have higher starting numbers and eventually the cream will rise to the top but they still have some hard yards to go especially if they keep gazing into the rear view mirror.
Labor has a gift in Turnbull's style. He often reverses his view on a matter within days of first striding into the spotlight and has left his Shadow Ministers holding the baby when he has failed to tell them before hand.
He hasn't been able to control the Global Warming deniers within the coalition too and seems happy to muddle around without any real policies of the matters that concern the Voters.
Even better value is he is destroying Joe Hockey's cred by having him try to defend the indefensible fake email. Something that John Howard did to Joe with Work Choices. This is a huge problem the Libs are yet to realise. Joe built up heaps of "good guy" points when he and Kevin 07 used to do daily gigs on morning TV. Kevin 07 used his to good advantage while the Libs have frittered Joe's away.
When you add to this Turnbull's surprising lack of business acumen and inexperience of the political process, you have a chap who regularly appears to be out of touch and often makes a goose of himself over Parlimentary processes.Embarassing arguments with department heads have cost him dearly.
It doesn't get much easier than this so Labor should back off and try and keep Malcolm off the front pages.
Where the focus should be applied is to the activities of Mr Grech. The Public Servant generously, if not accurately, labelled as a whistle blower by Turnbull.
Someone has to go. If the embattled Grech was bullied into faking the email then he is not strong enough to perform his role and he should go. If he had a brain fade and made it up all on his own then the pressure has gotten to him and he should go. If someone in his department accessed his computer and wrote the fake then they should go.
The Public Service is supposed to protect the country from politicians not conspire to undermine a government. Whistle blowing is uncomfortable for pollies but is based on fact and helps to "keep the bastards honest" but lying is a million miles away from whistle blowing.
The body language of Mr Grech was shocking at the hearing before the fake was revealed. I can't think of a more obvious example of someone uncomfortable in their data. I suspect the government noticed it too and started to smell a rat.
The result so far is a major cred problem for Turnbull simply because he led with his chin but it currently stands as a "best case" result for Labor if they don't push it too far. The last thing they should be aiming at is getting a new Opposition Leader.
Nursey rhymes are entirely appropiate for politics so some thought should be given to that old axiom, Don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
The good ship Lost Cause appears to have met with some technical hitches of late and it makes me wonder how long it is going to take the new crew to get a grip on their not so new roles.
First and foremost the crew seems to be unaware they are
still stuck on the rocks that John and Peter drove them onto before the last
Election. This is a little puzzling because it’s pretty clear even to the
Liberal party that things are not going swimmingly well. The problem seems to be below deck and they haven't searched that far yet.
The problem comes from a number of areas not the least of which is being caused by wanting their old job back without getting their policies under control. The idea that they should be focussing on being a strong Opposition doesn’t seem to have occurred just yet, so, to continue the metaphor, they are trying to relaunch the good ship Lost Cause while it still has structural damage.
The “Fake email” affair is fair of example of just how far off the mark the party is. Desperate to have something to attack the Government over, they rushed off without checking the data (assuming they didn’t help create it) and the whole fiasco blew up in their faces.
Here are a couple of tips to help the hapless Malcolm get
his mind around the job. Lets call it Opposition 101.
1. Don’t run the attack of something like secret emails yourself. That is what gooses like Ironbar Tuckey are for. You let the story break with a known dill and see if it will fly. That way if the story goes “pear shaped” you are not left standing there with your finger prints on the evidence and public statements to answer to. If the story grows legs you still get the points but you can claim to be above such gutter tactics.
2. When the horse has died in the traces, put the whip away. Like living in a successful marriage, if you have fallen into a hole. Stop digging. Make the apology and accept the fact that it makes you look human. It’s actually a plus with the Voters though who knows how the Party will view it.
3. Don’t attack the strongest member on the other side. This one is simply common sense.
4. Stop trying to discredit Kevin 07 on character issues. Current public perception is young Kevin is boringly straight while the Opposition is projecting themselves as desperate folk unprofessional enough to run any hint of a problem without the skills to check it out. This last episode looks like more of the same.
5.
Get yourself a serious Emissions Trading Scheme.
You were voted out for ignoring Global Warming and blocking and filibustering new
legislation simply show the Public you are still without answers. Forget what the party wants. It's supposed to be about what the Voters want unless you aspire to the Iranian model.
6. Cast off those crazy Nationals. (Think of them as ballast). Trying to hide Climate Change deniers is no easy trick especially when one of them is Barnaby Joyce. You have a serious cred problem here and you cannot solve it with these folk holding back policies.
This morning I was surprised to hear Joe Hockey defend the fake email on RN Breakfast. I know he has a role to perform as the 2 IC but this one is dead. He might have something to work on with the Treasurer but it isn't the email. He was actually changing his position as he went through the interview. Clearly he had not thought the problem through and he was trying out different excuses “live to air”. Ouch. You have to have your story straight before you face the media.
The starting gambit was “the email exists so it’s proof something is happening”
Fran. “But the police have discovered it is a fake”
Hockey. “Yes but it proves it does exist”
(Not sure what he was aiming at here but it certainly does not do his party any credit that it does and they ran with it. He was probably trying to restate obvious stuff before running a smoke screen but just happened to pick the wrong item.)
Fran. “Are you claiming it’s not a fake?”
Hockey. “It proves an email exists. Doesn’t it?”
(Hmm. Sounds like he was going to try and claim its existence was proof of guilt but then it didn’t sound like such a smart idea. The inflection hinted at 2nd thoughts as did the question mark)
A little later on. Fran. “Are you going to release the details of this email?”
Hockey. “This matter is in police hands.”
(Ouch. The old subjudice argument except it doesn’t hold water in this case. The text of this “missing” email was read into Hansard by a Senator late last week. )
At the end of the interview, Hockey was asked to character reference the person alleged to have produced the fake email. Surprisingly he did so. Even though the suspect is an ex-Hockey staffer, I would have thought it time to play safe in case the poor chap has had a brain fade and generated the fake with malice aforethought. I’m not going to complain too much about him supporting the guy, that’s rather human, but it does add to the overall look of an Opposition that doesn’t think forward and is prepared to front the media without a solid plan.
Once the party gets over trying to set policy to meet their internal wishes and starts formulating policies to meet Voters requirements, then things will start to get underway again. I just can’t predict how long it is going to take them to “get it together”.
What a crazy week we have had. In a world that needs some
fine tuning we have been inundated with hysteria about what to do. Both in the
States and in Oz the conservatives have been strident in opposing change and
offering some weak excuses for “doing nothing”.
My favourite is “We can’t leave
our kids all this debt”.
Excuse me?
Anyone who has had to manage their finances
should know how it works.
- You save money for a rainy day and currently it’s
pissing down.
- You get out there and try to hold up the bits that can be
salvaged.
- You aim at getting your work force ready for the new Economy as you
develop new business and
- when you run short of money you borrow.
- When things
turn around you retire the debt.
The trick is you don’t ignore the repayments.
In the US this is never going to happen not like Australia where Labor lost a
post WW2 Election because the Conservatives decided to cut taxes by stopping
the repayment of WW2 debt.
Collapsing your job market for a catchy phrase like “Leaving
your kids a debt” is so very shallow. It’s better to have a job and feed your
kids NOW. In the normal flow of events most of us are supported by society when
we retire so it’s not as if the kids don’t carry us in a stable economy. It’s how the system works.
It does seem that
some of these folk have never had trouble putting food on the table.
The idea
that it’s better to have a total train wreck is amazing. Rebuilding half an
economy must be far easier than having the whole thing to reconstruct.
Another
side issue here is a point made by Kirk some time back. How come the Conservatives
are happy to trash the economy for a war but can’t run up debt for their own
citizens? I think that comes down to George Orwell’s warning in Animal Farm.
Some folk are more equal than others.
Funny that. I always thought it was to be expected of Communism.
In Oz we have Heather Ridout from the business council
and the conservatives wanting to delay the carbon trading scheme by another 2
years (forever if you listen to the Nationals). Yes the scheme needs fine
tuning and it is a complex beast (that is why the conservatives haven’t come up
with their own ideas) but fine tuning is far easier than starting from scratch.
It’s really simple Malcolm. The longer you wait the more expensive it gets or the lesser the outcome or both. Looks like a conservative repeat of the post war years. Ignore the fundamentals and hope the Voters don’t do the math.
Why would we not get stuck in now and save time?
Instead of
trying to restore a system we can’t afford, let’s get straight into developing
the new economy and develop the workforce and financial support right now. We
need the jobs and business needs some cash. Let’s get on with it and ignore the
parties that can’t keep up.
We are already sacrificing part of the Great Barrier Reef. Let’s make sure we don’t lose the lot.
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