30 posts tagged “war on terror”
Firstly he lost his two best recruitment officers in Bush and Cheney, then the US Treasury suggested he has cash flow problems. Now the top little earner of the opium harvest is struggling to hold it's price levels.
In the early years of this century (2001) the Taliban felt drugs were evil and almost eradicated the harvest reducing the cultivation by an impressive 91% under their regime. They must have then hired an Economic Rationalist because they have since had a rethink and these days take a cut of the harvest calculated at around 10 %. On current figures this is supposed to come in at around $200M to $400M per year. That's one heck of a lot of explosive in anyone's book.
In 2008 NATO and the Afghan government spent hundreds of millions of dollars to destroy an estimated 3% of the opium harvest. An expensive operation which basically had no effect because the oversupply has driven the price way down. The World consumes about 5,000 tonnes a year but Afghanistan alone grows far more than this level. The upshot of the oversupply was a 33% drop in the price last year.
The Taliban have become rather attached to the previous price levels so now NATO forces are uncovering stockpiles of the crop when raiding Taliban hangouts. Like the drug users themselves, they are addicted to their biggest revenue raiser.
Hopefully the forces of light will reconsider the previous program of eradication (which cost many lives as well as dollars) and try something a bit more innovative like promoting legal crops.
This wins on so many different levels.
- The Afghan government doesn't have to irritate the farmers by destroying their income.
- The Taliban have an even bigger problem of oversupply to deal with.
- The cost in lives and dollars to the Afghan government is significantly reduced.
- NATO forces are less obvious in the negative sense in their interaction with the locals.
- The opium affect on GDP which currently stands at 3% can be replaced by other crops.
Good job too. It's high time they were put on the back foot. Let's hope this opportunity to destabilise the Taliban is embraced.
The first stunning fact was how many aircraft are deployed over Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US operates these craft out of 2 bases in the States. Creech in Nevada and Davis-Monthan in Arizona. The amazing number of 250 pilots piloting around the clock gives a hint of the size of the enterprise but add to this figure that pilots can handle 4 drones at any one time and the numbers really start to climb.
Impressive logistics must be involved when you think of contractors launching closer to the action then control being managed from the continental USA.
Currently the high priority targets for this force is leadership figures standing against the US and they have had some success. But here's the rub. According to Aussie counter insurgency expert, David Kilcullen, who actually works for the State Department in the US, for every al-Qa'eda or Taliban leader killed, 50 civvies also die.
Is that a net gain or loss in the overall picture? You can insert your own bias here as to if you think it's worth the effort.
What is beyond doubt though, is this is an expensive operation in both dollars and human lives and not especially clear cut in its advantages when you factor in the negative effect killing civilians has on boosting Taliban recruitment.
To make matters even worse from where I'm viewing it from, the so called "good guys" feel the need to cheat in elections so they are not as confident of public support as we were led to believe. Add to that the rule changes made against their women folk and the ramping up of protection for the churches with strengthened blasphemy laws, and I start to wonder exactly why we are even involved.
Americans might call it Democracy but its a pretty generous definition under normal standards. How many lives should be sacrificed for such an imperfect result?
I see young Alexander has seen fit to criticize the awarding of the Nobel Peace prize to the current US President Barack Obama.
Obviously he feels he qualified on matters related to peace after his promotion of war and the attempted destruction of the Geneva convention during his chance to do something positive in easing tension around the world. Something he failed at dismally.
I'm not surprised Downer has failed to see the lifting of the tension caused by the shortsightedness by George W Bush. He was so locked into caveman politics he was never aware of the massive damage caused by Bush not understanding the international community.
His solution to more terror attacks? Get bigger guns and kill more people in the vain hope that you can kill more terrorists than you create. Policy FAIL.
Alexander did his bit to promote terrorist organisations too. He tried to credit the loss of an election by the Spanish Government to a train terror attack when in actual fact the Voters thought the incumbent Government were untrustworthy. Not even the Yanks fell for that one.
Another feather in Downer's hat is his support for water boarding. Yep. Alexander and his crew of moral pollies signed right up for the "water boarding is not torture" rubbish. Folk much smarter than he and especially those old enough to remember WW2 must have been horrified to see the weakening of one of the few protections available for POWs.
I was more than amused to see Lech Walesa complaining about the prize win too. When he scored the "Peace" prize I wondered what the reasoning was. If it was called the Democracy prize it would have made sense but at that time his efforts to destabilise the Polish Government were hardly promoting peace.
I'm sure the Obama detractors will moan long and hard over the awarding of the Peace prize but the World is already a safer place with the departure of Bush. The fact that Obama was lucky enough to be measured against his predecessor was his (and the worlds) good fortune. The fact that someone as shallow as Alexander Downer does not approve is just the icing on the cake.
As if the continuing stream of body bags out of Afghanistan is not testing the Brits enthusiasm for war, check out this item from The Age from last week.
The ongoing saga of these kidnappings from 2007 has serious indications of a cover up to conceal massive fraud in Iraq.
Whodathunkit?
Once you start pouring money into a problem and trying to hide the mistakes, things rapidly go pear shaped.
I feel very sorry for the survivor(?) and his family and I wonder just how the British Government is going to handle matters from here on in. The Voters are pretty fed up with the deceptions played by Blair and will more than likely tip Labor out when the next chance comes along.
Who can blame them? When a government sacrifices the lives of your kids based on deception and inaction they should hardly expect to get another term.
The Bush / Blair adventure just keeps gathering more and more bad karma.
How lucky are American voters?
This week another test popped up that McCain clearly fumbled and gave the Voters a clear indication of the correctness of their collective decision last election.
The unhappiness in Iran after the sham election has highlighted a serious character flaw in Republican thinking. That is that they have to tell other nations how to run their country. It’s not even a case of working towards achieving their desired ends. It must be obvious to them that any US interference is highly counterproductive so it must be a macho thing.
McCain decided to get vocal about this over the past week and has managed to show he is still locked into the “Cold War” thinking that he should have grown out of at his age. But maybe that’s what the problem is. Some of the older senators are locked into the knee jerk reaction that makes them oh so amenable to their opponents.
I hate to think of what may have happened if McCain was in power. Clearly he aspires to the “tough guy” image rather than the “smart guy” so perhaps we might have been treated to threats of military force and other worthless grandstanding which would make sod all difference to the situation on the ground, but been helpful to the folk he seems to want to unsettle.
The common US claim is to try and keep the civilian death toll down in struggles for Democracy but this simply doesn’t work when you have had previous leaders play the “Christian” card. Bush did it a lot and appears to have enjoyed doing so even at the cost of more aggravation. That was another ego thing just like his hated comments to the car bombers in Iraq of “Do your worst.”
In Iraq we now have the coming Civil War but we can be grateful to the US for going out of their way to train up many of the different groups. At least the body bags will be filled efficiently. Happily the US troops are being moved out of the way so their presence should be less obvious and thus less inflammatory to the locals. And hopefully less US body bags will be going home.
The take home message for McCain should be “mind your own business”. It’s not your problem and if you interfere you only make it harder for those struggling towards Democracy. How much easier can it get? By doing nothing you are actually getting a better result and no US kids need to be sacrificed to promote a hated foreign government.
The only down side that I can see is he might have to resort to Viagra to prove his manliness.
There is no possible way any assistance can be provided by the US but a good deal of damage can be inflicted on the protesters if they mistakenly think the US can shelter them. (Think Sadam's victims and even back to the Bay of Pigs.)
It may feel good to show off and saber rattle a foreign power when you are still recovering from a loss of confidence from your supporters, but whatever happened to the common sense logic so clearly demonstrated in Sesame Street? Surely these well paid folk have at least been educated to that pre-school level? The education that appears to be lacking is "Think what happens next".
According to the son of the Shah (The US friend who was in power before the revolution) the current Theocracy has 15 to 20% of hard core popular support. I haven't seen this figure challenged but the level of debate coming out of the US seems pitched at school yard level so this figure is way beyond their consideration.
Assuming the figure is somewhat accurate and the violent nature of religious rule, there is hardly going to be an uprising organised enough to change the political landscape. However if the US starts throwing around orders the incumbents will immediate play the "Great Satan" card and start building it's supporter base. This pretty much ensures that the protesters will be gunned down as the racist fervour is built up. It also strengthens a Government that is not enjoying the levels of support it once had and gives it a fresh breath of fear based support. Something that should be quite contrary to what these polliticians should actually be aiming for.
Obviously George Bush Junior's helpful support of Bin Laden is a lesson that has yet to sink in and some of these folk are sitting around with the fairies at the bottom of the garden thinking they can call the shots anywhere they choose.
So far the President has shown a lot more common sense than some of the cold war vets still living off the Public purse and going by their wacky demands not particularly keeping up with the real world. Like the Evangelists of old these chaps seem to believe they have some God given right to interfere with governments that don't share their views, but worse than that, they set out in precisely the wrong way to achieve their dreams.
I know these folk are still coming to terms with having their influence removed from Iran all those years ago but it's time to suck it up and get over it. This old sore may well drift back towards some form they find more agreeable but not while they keep picking at it.
If you can't make it better then don't mess with it.
See the report here.
And the Australian government can count their lucky stars that this fine chap performed above and beyond the call of duty. About 30 SAS troops were operating with an equal number of Dutch Commandos and they were involved in 6 actions between April and July of 2006.
Each of these actions had huge potential for disaster and only skill and bravery saved the situation. In one action the Dutch had to withdraw through Aussie positions during a fire fight which has to be one of the trickiest maneuvers you can do. The risk of a so called "friendly fire" incident is very high indeed.
In the final action the situation was saved by a US Herc gunship delivering a withering fire, at night, within 30 meters of their surrounded position. The attack direct by Lieutenant Kroon.
In typical Defence Department style, no mention was made of these events at the time but the gig is up. Aussies would do well to consider just how long we can trust to luck and training the lives of our kids.
One thing is certain. If and when 30 body bags turn up draped in Aussie flags, an unpopular war is going to be even more unsustainable.
Doubling the size of the submarine fleet must have some sort of reasoning behind it but I'm stuffed if I know what it is. The wacky proposal that this would allow us to face off against the Chinese is bizarre to say the least.
Unfortunately this enthusiasm doesn't extend to our troops serving in the lost cause of Afghanistan. The request for better armour for their vehicles remains largely unmet and the Minister appears in no hurry to remedy the situation. It seems our troops are highly respected in front of the cameras but invisible when the photo op has passed.
I guess I should not be surprised by this situation. When I was serving, badly needed infrastructure used to be planned for the next budget, then something sexy, shiny and lethal would be proposed and the needed stuff would be pushed back again.
What is really tragic here is the lack of outrage from the Public. The highest risk to our kids is road side bombs and unprotected vehicles have no way of surviving when one explodes underneath them. Can you imagine the Health and Safety bodies accepting companies in Oz not protecting their workers from the thing most likely to kill them? It wouldn't be tolerated.
So how come the Government doesn't have to play by the same rules?
Watching the Lehrer News Hour and reading various blogs of late it appears the US is locked in furious debate over how to deal with the breaking of the Geneva Convention and other presumed misdeeds by George W Bush Junior‘s Administration.
It’s certainly a tricky problem with lots of light and shade but it also has a bit of scaremongering being generated by folk who have a lot to lose.
The first non-issue is the claim that folk following orders will be prosecuted. Hardly likely and it smacks of desperation. There are much better defences than this line. Obama himself has said they will not be chasing down the torturers (oops. I mean interrogators). The focus will be higher up the chain of command.
Another is that anyone who knew of the particularly offensive decisions, like Speaker Pelosi, can be held accountable. That’s a long bow to draw considering these folk aren’t the decision makers, but at least this is a more complex argument than the first one. The tactic here is fear and aimed at the enthusiastic Senators. If you can scare enough of them you might get the numbers to fend off the investigation.
These tactics aside, there are a number of important matters raised about the previous Administration that require urgent attention but caution needs to be exercised.
Firstly, the claim that torture revealed valuable, actionable information. As unpleasant as it is, this has to be examined closely to see if this is just spin. It’s commonly claimed that torture doesn’t work and if this claim is found to have substance then the debate can move on to which tactics prove most effective. Considering the CIA’s record of burning tapes and lying to Congress, these claims may well prove to be a fabrication.
Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, with so many folk from the previous Administration confused about the definition of torture, the US needs to think about that definition and make it clear that such confusion will not be tolerated. The damage it has done to the country’s security is immense. In this area heads must roll or the next bunch of cowboys in control will ignore the rules.
But having said that some thought has to be exercised when it comes to the photos showing torture. The Abu Ghraib photos went straight to recruitment posters and it would be a tragedy to hand Bin Laden a free shot at building up his forces.
The previous Administration showed a stunning lack of thought when it came to protecting the country and even to this day seem oblivious to the damage they have done to the US overall. Locking down the responsibilities of an Administration with penalties that apply in the US would seem to be essential in preventing another casual approach to Administrative responsibilities.
Politicians would do well to remember the trouble faced by Augusto Pinochet when visiting Margaret Thatcher in the UK and ending up spending 17 months in detention. Every Government should face the real risk of having to take responsibility for their actions or indeed inaction otherwise we may as well be living in an old Monarchy.
It’s the pigs in Animal Farm all over again.
It explains a lot of how human rights has advanced over the years and has some real gems about Australia's role in getting some rights in place when Doc Evatt strode the world stage.
Especially interesting is the information around Pinochet and his detention in the UK. I'll bet when he signed the anti torture paperwork he thought it would never have the teeth to bite back.
He also deals with Rumsfeldt easily. If you have a spare hour this is worth a listen.
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